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Nigeria needs to grow economy by 13% to attain V2020 goals, says Group
Abuja, August, 2009: The Macro-economic Framework Group (MFG) saddled with the responsibility of developing a framework for the Medium Term and NV 20:2020 has recommended an annual double digit growth of between 13 to 14 percent if the country is to achieve its vision target of becoming the 20th largest economy by the year 2020.
Nigeria today ranks 40th in the world with a GDP of about $315 billion. To achieve its targets for V2020, it would be required to up its GDP to $962 billion and a per capital income of about $4,000, up from the present $1,500.
Netherlands with a GDP of $642billion is currently the 20th largest economy with an annual growth rate of three percent. If this growth trend remains the same going forward to 2020, Nigeria would need to grow its economy to 642 billion to enter the 20th nation bracket, the group found.
This growth, to be based on identified emerging growth drivers – agriculture, Oil and Gas and Small and Medium scale enterprises (SMEs) – would require commensurate sectoral transformation with the possibility of other potential growth areas such as Information technology and Telecommunications coming into play in the medium term.
The 41-member group, which was inaugurated on 30th July, 2009, was specifically charged with the task of not only developing a macro-economic framework for the NV 2020, but also make projections on what needed to be done in order to achieve the set targets for the Vision.
In carrying out its assignment, the group reviewed the report of the Nigeria Economic Society (NES) on the nation’s growth drivers including its eight-sector model for the 5th national Development Plan.
Given its baseline projections, the MFG has so far developed three scenarios by which the goals of V2020 could be achieved and adopted some baseline projections since it began its work on 4th August, 2009.
Following its review of the NES report, the group has recommended an up scaling of the model from eight to 13 sectors, and the need to reduce the 42 percent contribution of Agriculture to the nation’s GDP to a single digit by 2020 as other sectors such as Services kick in.
The group has a nine-point Terms of Reference that includes: developing a credible macro-economic framework for the medium term and NV 20:2020 and reviewing the draft macroeconomic framework for the 5th national Development plan prepared by the Nigerian Economic Society (NES).
The group, which is expected to round up its assignment on 21st August, 2009, would be presenting its preliminary findings to the Central Working group (CWG) on Monday, 17th August, 2009.
The CWG is charged with the responsibility of harmonizing all input received towards the preparation of the final V2020 document.
OTHER TERMS OF REFERENCE (for the Link above)
Analysing Nigeria’s historical macroeconomic performance (based on recent studies) for the purpose of providing an understanding ofg the nation’s macroeconomic fundamentals
Reviewing the reports of the National technical Working groups (NTWGs) in the 29 thematic areas with a view to identifying relevant input for the development of the macro-economic framework
Updating the model relevant data on the economy to facilitate realistic projection for the Medium and Long Term
Developing the range of assumptions and scenarios for the macro-economic model and undertake simulations, including growth forecasts and projections for each component of the economy (real, fiscal,external and monetary) for 2010 to 2020 under at least three scenarios
Recommending the critical policy priorities of government for the short, medium and long term with regards to actualization of Vision 2020 and the associated investment profile for both the Federal and State governments
Documenting and finalizing the macro-economic framework Chapter of the final V2020 blueprint and preparing necessary materials on the macroeconomic framework for the benefit of the CWG and;
Developing preliminary estimates of the costs of implementing the short term initiatives proposed in the V2020 NTWG reports.
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The Honourable Minister of National Planning ...[read more] |
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